Tuesday, 30 November 2010
Asset Bubbles In Singapore?
I fear and can sense the asset bubbles that are forming in our equities and real estate markets. As at to date the stock market is at 29-month high and the mortgage growth has grown by 23% - 10-year high. With the latest Federal Reserve's US$600 Billion QE2 accompanied by the low interest rate environment cheap money is flowing into our shores.The latest slew of IPOs (with a few mega ones) and bond offerings by listed entities has heated up the market. On the real estate front the Government has released many building sites for developers' bidding not forgetting the build-to-order (BTO) projects offered by the HDB. The whole exercise gives one the feeling of bubbles frothing and buiding! The Government has subsequently introducted the latest cooling measures to arrest the euphoria and madness! We must not forget the lesssons of the economic bubbles in Japan from 1986 to 1991. This led to the "lost decade" of the Japanese economy! In 2003/2004 the Japanese Stock Market and the Real Estate Market crashed - a unit in the financial district nose-dived to less than 1% of its peak value whilst a residential unit fetched less than one tenth. It is in Singapore's interest to be careful and mindful!